Climate and increased consumption should maintain coffee price at high

The price of coffee should continue to go up in the coming weeks, at least until this year's crop, that starts to be harvested around April or May. The statement is from the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (Abic). The main cause of price increase is climate events, that influence the grain crop. Increased consumption worldwide and the arrival of a new global consumer market, To China, também influenciam.

According to the entity, This impact on prices should be maintained for two or three months. After, a moment of cooling should come in the value of the product, with a certain stabilization. The drop in price, however, should only happen from the next year's crop, Estimates the Association.

The increase in the price of coffee has been observed since November last year. And it is not a phenomenon only in Brazil, who is the world's leading exporter in the world, representing almost 40% world production, followed by Vietnam (around 17%) and by Colombia.

Harvest

Em 2020, The Brazilian crop broke record, But the following years were bad for the crop, influenced by the climate. Em 2021, There was a frost that decreased almost 20% Arabica's crop. Em 2022, She could not recover - overall, The crop takes two years for this to happen, explained ABIC.

Already in 2023, The crop suffered the effects of El Niño [phenomenon that affects the climate across the planet], with a long period of drought and high temperatures. E, last year, The phenomenon that acted was La Niña, that brought elongated rainfall.

"This is very bad for the crop", explicou o presidente da Abic, Pavel Cardoso, adding that the crop that will be harvested this year will be slightly lower than last year.

"This accumulation of four years of climate problems and the growth of global demand gives the explanation of this price climbing in coffee.", highlighted.

With all these climate problems affecting the crop, Producers needed to increase production spending. Therefore, The cost of the raw material has risen. The industry, informed ABIC, had increases higher than 200% and had to pass on part of that, around 38%, to the consumer.

All of these conjugated factors ended up contributing to the high prices of Commodity in international scholarships, which also brings reflexes to the consumer's pocket. On the New York Stock Exchange, The main Arabian coffee contracts have reached the highest values ​​in history. Today, for example, The quotation went up again and rented, arriving US $ 3,97 To Libra-Peso.

“Regarding this record, that is almost reaching US $ 4 To Libra-Peso, Much was attributed to a potentialization of this short offer. It is a strong entry of backgrounds that generates a historical number, but which is potentially important for the reflection of the entire sector. This moment is won for everyone? It is a situation that is up to us all to reflect ”, said Cardoso. “This climbing at some point will stop, But it is not known when. This is the question we all ask ”.

Estimates

Abic expects this year's crop, that starts to be harvested in April, Help stabilize prices. The sector also has a high expectation for next year's crop, that can beat the record of 2020, helping to expand supply and decrease product prices. While this does not occur, The consumer should still suffer from the increase in coffee as the industry still has transfers to make for its high cost.

“In relation to the raw material, we must still have some additional volatility until the arrival of the crop, that should tension because of a very short offer. From the arrival of this crop, We understand that there will be some stability. And when we have finished the harvest, therefore, with a look at 2026, We hope to have a large crop, possibly higher than 2020, When we had a record crop ”, informed Cardoso,

“Regarding the consumer, We will have some additional increase, in the end, we had increases higher than 180% for the industry, that absorbed this increase and passed on part of it to the markets, reaching 37% for consumers. Then, part of this increase will be transferred to retailers and, consequently, to consumers ”, explained.

Sector data

The consumption of the drink in Brazil between November 2023 and October 2024 grew up 1,11% compared to the previous year, According to data released by Abic on Wednesday (5).

Brazil, which is the largest producer and exporter of the product, It is also the second largest consumer of coffee, having consumed 21,916 million bags in 2024, what meant 4,1 millions of bags less than consumed by the country that is leading this ranking, The United States. Sector data also reported that the Brazilian consumes, average, 1.430 cups/year of coffee.

The revenues of the toasted coffee industry in the domestic market added R $ 36,82 billions last year, a variation of 60,85% when compared to 2023. The change occurs due to the increase in the price of coffee in the gondola. No external market, the revenue was R $ 134 millions.

Specialty coffees suffered an increase in 9,80%, When compared to the period of January 2024 with December 2024. Already the category of Gourmet Cafés registered an increase of 16,17%; the upper cafes, of 34,38%; and traditional and extrafortes coffees, had an increase in 39,36%. Capsule cafes also registered an increase in prices (2,07%).

In the last four years, The raw material has increased 224%, And coffee in retail increased 110%. Last year, the price variation for the consumer of the toasted and ground coffee was 37,4%, an increase greater than the average basic basket (2,7%)

Information: Brazil agency

Photo: Marcello Casal Jr | Brazil agency